(Image source from: Reuters.com)
China is back to the roots and the country is battling with the latest wave of Covidd-19. The restrictions are back on track and the country is back to crisis. All the hospitals are completely full and lakhs of people are getting treated in their homes. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and health economist said that the thermonuclear wave of coronavirus is expected to infect more than 60 percent of the population in China in the next three months. He also said that the deaths would be in the millions and this is just a start. Here is the official statement of Eric:
THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of China & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start. Summary of #CCP's current #COVID goal: "Let whoever needs to be infected infected, let whoever needs to die die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production". Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time now possibly “hours” says some experts — let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is <1 day because it’s hard to PCR test that fast. The point is China & the earth is in deep trouble. The deaths in mainland China is being hugely underreported outside of the country. Through a survey of hospitals, funeral parlors & related funeral industry chains in Beijing—there is a recent explosion in funeral services caused by the sharp increase in deaths.
Example—cremation in Beijing nonstop. Morgues are overloaded. Refrigerated containers needed. 24/7 funerals. 2000 bodies backlogged for cremations. Sound familiar? It is spring 2020 all over again— but this time for China, emulating more Western-mass infection approach. Westerns think there is a fever and antibiotic shortage now? Wait until China’s production is diverted from exports! Here—people rushed to a pharmaceutical factory to buy ibuprofen because it is completely sold out elsewhere! Dec 18, in #Zhuhai City. Yes I care because I was born in China — but also because I’m an epidemiologist (my D degree is in it), & I’ve seen this shit show before. What happens in China doesn’t stay in Wuhan was our lesson 3 years ago. The global fallout of this 2022-2023 wave will not be small.
I’m going to pause for a moment—am I saying this will be the start of another “Thermonuclear bad” #COVID wave worldwide? Not necessarily via virus directly— but the global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly. You can ignore my words at own peril. 1-2 million deaths in China is a very common number lately—I’ve seen the models— it’s certainly possible. It could be higher if govt doesn’t do anything, lower if govt curbs virus with heavy mitigations again. But anti-China-zero-COVID folks should accept their hand in this. We need more collective empathy in this world. Just because something happens in a faraway city somewhere that you’ve never heard of—doesn’t mean it won’t affect you. Chances are— in this world—it will affect you. And it may affect / harm our children… may they forgive us.